For the week ending May 2, 2014, the CI Market Dashboard had two bullish signals, three bearish and four neutral.

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) gained 0.95% for the week to close at $95. Once again, the ETF tested the $95 level but failed to break through it

Market Dashboard indicators worth discussing this week are:

  • IYY remained above its 100-day simple moving average, so the iShares Dow Jones Index Fund indicator remains bullish. The difference between IYY’s closing price and the moving average grew to 2.3%.
  • IYY’s MACD line (+0.267) was above the signal line (+0.169) at the close of this week, so the indicator remains bullish.
  • The percentage of NYSE stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (60.6%) continues to be bearish until its reading either falls below the 25% bullish threshold and then rebounds above 25%, or no subsequent confirming bearish signal is generated before the current bearish signal goes “stale” and reverts back to neutral on September 12, 2014.
  • The NYSE Bullish Percentage P&F chart (66.06%) continues to be bearish until its reading either falls below the 30% bullish threshold and then moves back above it or no subsequent confirming bearish signal is generated by it moving back above the 70% bearish threshold and falling back below it. If no new signals are generated before then, the signal will go “stale” and revert back to neutral on October 10, 2014.
  • The NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator went neutral this week from last week’s bearish reading. While $NASI (-333.95) closed the week below its five-day exponential moving average (-307.62), the MACD line of $NASI (-119.033) crossed above the signal line (-121.285). These contradicting signals caused the indicator to go neutral.
  • It came to my attention that the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage indicator should be bearish. The bullish percentage rose above the 50% bearish threshold on December 26, 2013, and fell back below it on January 2, 2014, which generated a bearish reading. If the indicator does not issue a subsequent bearish signal, or it doesn’t fall below the bullish threshold at 25% and then rise above it for a bullish signal, it will remain BEARISH until June 26, 2014. At which point, the signal will go “stale” and revert back to neutral.
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Wayne Thorp

Wayne A. Thorp, CFA, is a vice president and the senior financial analyst at the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). His primary responsibility is to oversee AAII's content strategy. He is also the program manager for AAII's Stock Investor Pro fundamental stock screening and research database program and is on the advisory boards of AAII's Stock Superstars Report and Dividend Investing newsletters. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation and is a 1997 honors graduate of DePaul University in Chicago. Wayne's interests include stock screening, technical analysis and charting, social media and tech gadgets. However, in the summer he'd prefer to be hip-deep in northern Michigan's Manistee River fly-fishing for rainbow trout. He is also a rabid University of Michigan and Detroit Red Wings fan.

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